Sun flares

Discussion in 'Getting Started' started by rcwatkins, Oct 24, 2003.

  1. rcwatkins

    rcwatkins Member

    I hear this weekend there will be some flares from the sun that will reach Earth. What does it mean? Well cell phone reception, satellite tv, some airplane radars, & even the your electricity may not work.

    Oh, don't forget to set your clocks back an hour except in 77 of 87 counties of Indiana, Arizona except Navajo Nation, & all of Hawaii. Also remember to get new smoke alarm batteries if you haven't already.
  2. Tyson Rayles

    Tyson Rayles Active Member

    Got rid of the cell phone when I retired, have thru the air T.V. as well as sat. but rarely watch either, don't fly and if the power goes out, got my own generator. Also I don't live in any of those places but since I'm retired I stay on EDST year round. What was your question again???????? :p :D
  3. Pitchwife

    Pitchwife Dreamer

    rcwatkins has a valid warning. Even if you don't use cell phones or get satallite tv the solar flares can wreck havock on power grids and phone lines. I believe it was 15 or 20 years ago that a solar storm blacked out most of eastern Canada. Power surges, blackouts and brownouts should be regarded as real possibilities. Computers without UPS's (Universal Power Supply) and any other electronic gear is at possable risk. The more solid state components something has the greater the risk. It might be advisable to avoid running expensive DCC or even DC units until the storm passes.

    There's not much you can do to avoid setting the clocks back though. :D :D As much as it bums me out having it get dark at 3:30 pm. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
  4. MCL_RDG

    MCL_RDG Member

    Pretty kewl~~~~~~

    I hate solar flares. Having just got back into my other hobby- amateur radio- solar flares can surely disrupt anything in the air and on the ground. You may notice bad hair days for the next couple of days, birds will ground themselves. Certainly 10 meters- the 28Mhz band frequencies will be shut down. I guess that means I won't be able to talk to Germany or Italy or...

    Uhmmm, you may experience degraded cell phone reception but since you're frying your brain at Ghz+ freqs in some cases, a little solar flare and bad reception is acceptable damage. Plus it's pretty kewl~~~~~for cheap thrills.

    I suggest we start building underground solar flare shelters to keep the economy coming around.

    P.S. Why do they call it a "cell" phone? Because it drain bramages? or am I just being silly? or- since my whole summer was filled with rainy weeks and weekends I am tired to bother to hear of solar this and that?

    If I hear "El Nino" anytime this winter on my local weather report my head will explode!
  5. shaygetz

    shaygetz Active Member

    Nooooooo problem...still gotta mess o' ammo and K rations left over from Y2K. I'll just hunker down and build me a coupla kits 'til it passes:p ;) :D
  6. rcwatkins

    rcwatkins Member

    Well my power hasn't gone out, cell phones still work, however sat tv has had some slight static, & internet just freaked me out by giving me a suprise sound effect. :eek:
  7. CN1

    CN1 Active Member

    Notwithstanding the above, if you look up straight north at night, you may see some spectacular Northern lights:) :D
  8. RailRon

    RailRon Active Member

    Dang them hysteric mass media!

    It's amazing how our civilisation seems to be going nuts. Solar flares have been there for billions of years, and they won't reach earth at all. (Otherwise we wouldn't sit at the Gauge now - we all were little drifts of smoke in a boiling atmosphere! :D)

    Fact is, that the influence of solar flares has been overestimated for a long time. There are CMEs (Coronar Mass Eruptions) which produce an outbreak of much more solar wind (a cloud of hi-energy ions) coming our way. Even this reaches only into the uppermost levels of our atmosphere (ionosphere). A flare has nothing to do with that! It just occurs, that often a flare and a CME happens at about the same time.

    True, there are interactions of CMEs with radio long distance connections, and TV might get snowy because of over-range effects. Also it really was dangerous (even deadly) to be in a space vessel which encounters such a CME. And yes, if you are lucky, you might see spectacular Northern lights. But I doubt if even the connections of the handy-phone-net will be significantly affected.

    But then comes along some brain-amputated reporter, having no idea about modern astrophysics. So he extends the news, that there is a bigger flare than usual, to a prophecy of a havoc-wreaking breakdown of everything electric: power failure, blackout, brownouts, computers joining the birds... perhaps even flashlight piles acting up. :eek:
    And of course the media go for that stuff, blowing up possible dangers even further (you know, this way you can sell your papers...)

    I say HOGWASH! But it shows a general problem: We, as members of our hi-tech civilisation, are already made so insecure by the media, that we are really frightened by all those freakish and idiotic prophecies.

    (Another example - with a very sad background: Think of all those false alerts about that terrorist stuff! Has anybody of you tried to do some railfan photography lately? If yes, consider yourself to be lucky, that you are not imprisoned as a 'terrorist'. It happened to a friend of mine who toured the USA in Summer and made some pics in the L.A. area. He sat in jail for two days until police believed that he wasn't a terrorist!!! :( Hysteria pure!)

    I think the mass media are one of the worst castigations of our time. And since they have to raise their audidion ratings at any price, they make an elephant out of every mosquito! And so a solar flare becomes a deadly threat to our whole civilisation.

    Better build some kits until one more possible threat for humankind is over, like shaygetz suggested! :D :D :D

  9. rcwatkins

    rcwatkins Member

    Well, let me take back what I said about Sat tv. Mine went out. :( And I live too far south to see any resembelance of Arctic lights.
  10. Dave Flinn

    Dave Flinn Member

    Just butting in to second Ron's comments. Let's not get overanxious about natural phenomenon. The fires in California are far more dangerous than any solar flares. Unfortunately, we didn't even get to see the AUrora here in upstate New York.
  11. rockislandmike

    rockislandmike Active Member

    NB --- Saskatchewan never changes their clocks either.
  12. Pitchwife

    Pitchwife Dreamer

    I'm pretty sure that no one was predicting the end of the world, but to quote from PC Magazine,
    . The source of this information is,4149,1363381,00.asp .

    All we were saying was that with all of our advanced technology we have made ourselves more vulnerable to the whims of mother nature.
  13. kf4jqd

    kf4jqd Active Member

    Solar Flares

    Hello All:

    It's been a long time since I have said something on here! I saw the article of solar flares. They are disturbances on our sun. I wont go into the physics of all of it. As a Ham Radio operator let me tell you how it effects radio. Almost every night I talk on 3.913MHz. Usually stations are VERY strong. These past few days, I only hear 3 others on there. Normally there can be 30 or more of us on frequency!

    However, on 28MHz, I talked to Russia with 10 watts!!!! We live in a high tech society and Mother Nature can through us a curveball. The solar cycle peak was suppose to end in 2000. This is the 11 year solar cycle. Here is an interesting article that some Ham's have been passing around.


    What an exciting time for radio enthusiasts! This past weekend's media hype about a major geomagnetic and solar storm was unfortunate and unwarranted. But, today, solar events have occurred that has the whole propagation science community buzzing.

    I just finished talking with Mike Weaver from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Space and Environment Center (NOAA SEC). He is the Solar Forecaster that has been on duty for the last four days. Last week, I also spoke with Bill Murtagh, who is beginning a shift to cover the next few days. Our discussion focused on today's events, and what will transpire over the next few days. The following is my perspective of current solar and geophysical conditions and the forecast for the next 48 hours or so.

    On 28 October 2003 UTC, an X17.2-class flare from NOAA Region 486 occurred at 0951Z, peaking at 1110Z. This caused severe radio blackouts (R4 is the reported level, see for details on the scales used) on the sunlit side of the Earth (which would have been morning, on the eastern coast of North America). It also created an S3 (strong) solar radiation storm. Associated with this flare are a proton event and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). This flare is the second most intense of the current solar cycle. It is not historical. We expect several of these large flares during any given solar cycle.

    The proton event started at about 1330Z, and has exceeded all threshold levels, causing a Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA). It is expected that this proton event will be prolonged and last for the next 36 hours, to some degree. This will cause transpolar path degradation (don't expect any DX over the poles nor over any high-latitude paths) for the next few days.

    The CME was a full-halo, and is directed squarely at the Earth. Based on the speed and recordings, so far, Mike expects it to impact the Magnetosphere at about 1500Z 29 October 2003. When it hits, the shock alone will produce at least G3-level geomagnetic activity. This would translate to a Kp index of about 8, even if the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) is not pointed south when the CME arrives. After the initial shock wave, if the Bz is negative, indicating that the IMF has turned south, the Kp index will remain high, with a possible Kp of 9 during the passage of the CME. This will cause between a level G4 and a G5 (severe to extreme) geomagnetic storm. This will severely degrade HF and MW radio communications (while possibly enhancing VHF/UHF propagation).

    The timing of the arrival of the CME shock will occur after sunrise for those in North America. Therefore, I do not expect to see any Aurora tonight, local time on 28 October 2003. However, I do expect radio auroral mode propagation during the day of 29 October 2003, and continuing into the night of the same day. If the IMF remains negative, there is a strong chance of a prolonged severe geomagnetic storm, with associated Aurora viewable as far south as southern California and Florida.

    Continued radio blackouts are likely from new flare activity. As I write this, we are in the decline of a new M-class flare. There are eight main regions on the visible solar disk, three of which are actively producing flares. One of these is about to rotate out of view. One of the new regions just rotating into view is active, and has already produced some M-class flares.

    Overall conditions:

    In the next 12 to 20 hours, expect great conditions on frequencies above 15 MHz, while in general, all HF will have periods of radio blackouts during the flare events, if they occur. (And, they will occur). Sometime around 1500Z, tomorrow (29 Oct 2003), expect all HF communications to become severely degraded with the arrival of the CME shock, and for a severe to extreme geomagnetic storm to commence and last for a prolonged period. S3-level (severe) solar radiation storm conditions will last for the next 24 to 48 hours.

    I expect a lot more activity during this week, but I don't view this as a "third" peak in this current solar cycle, number 23. Several past cycles have had such bursts during the decline of those cycles.

    What do you think of that?! Going back to work on my fibre opics for light the snow coverage of the layout.

    73(Best Regards),
    Andy aka KF4JQD

    Attached Files:

  14. rcwatkins

    rcwatkins Member

    I'm sorry if this sounded like we were all going to die, it was more of an advisory.
  15. eightyeightfan1

    eightyeightfan1 Now I'm AMP'd

    No Cell Phone, no TV, No power...which means no computer no chat....I am gonna die!

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